杜子建:未来商业预测,2018年的两个关键词,未雨绸缪和杞人忧天

杜子建:未来商业预测2018年的两个关键词,未雨绸缪和杞人忧天

​​​在@杜子健老师的2017年最后一期的商业培训课上,关于2018年未来商业预测,提到了两个关键词,未雨绸缪和杞人忧天。这两个词怎么解释呢?书面的意思其实已经相当的明显,为未来做好打算。我的理解也可以换一种说法叫做居安思危,但我还是感觉这个词的分量不够。

下面我们来说一下杜老师提到的2018年要出现的几个拐点:

实体店是经营商的拐点

这个我想不用多说,频频出现倒闭潮,做实体生意的人都知道,这些年的实体业越来越不好干,房租越来越贵,大部分人都是在给房东打工。

在我们身边其实我们也不难发现,我们经常走的那条路上,有没有发现过一段时间就要重新装修一次,就有从新开业的。比如说在我家楼下,楼下有很多婚纱影楼等门店,但在这住了一年却已经换了3家店铺了。从婚纱影楼换到健康养生再到母婴用品。

用杜子建老师说的话,就是2018年回去就把你的实体店赶紧关掉,及时止损,不要在这上面在浪费时间和精力了。

2.电商是流量的拐点

这几年,不管是我身边的朋友还是我自己,都参与了电商部分的创业,可以说非常惨!流量太难转化了,平台流量根本到不了我们这,然后花钱买流量,但是买来的流量转化都不到百分之一!差不多一块钱一个流量,细算一下就知道了,做这个生意是赚不到钱的,不赔就很不错了,但如果算上经营成本和时间精力,我们都是赔本的。

有人会说,双十一光棍节天猫京东成交量都是一两千亿的成交量啊,那是你没有看到他们的退货率和未来几个月的流量。其实双十一是在透支流量,本来我是要下个月买的,但是你双十一搞活动,就刺激了我现在来买。做电商的朋友也是知道了,双十一过后,3-5个月基本上是没有生意的,电商老板你们可以去度假了。

3.微商是组织化拐点

微商的朋友都知道,团队不好带,一个小团队,带着带着就散了,这是为什么?因为你没有带团队的能力!没有凝聚力和组织能力,做微商团队的小领导你们就要注意一下了。要多读书,带团队的你要读一读现代管理学之父德鲁克的书籍。

4.平台是算法和人工智能的拐点

新的算法是必然的未来。比如现在的今日头条,全都使用机器人来推荐,根据你的喜好来推荐你喜欢的,“你喜欢的才是头条”,而不再是强迫性压迫式的推送给你,比如说百度的竞价排名,未来肯定是要死掉的。

未来互联网的流量必然会集中在这个平台。

5.大企业是人工智能和AR+的拐点

2017年人工智能和AR都有了很大的发展,也有很多事件发生,阿尔法狗战胜柯杰,《最强大脑》小度的超强发挥等。未来还会有超强的发展,现在就有人在提,量子计算机和未来互联网的消失。其实这个是会被替代的,人工智能他是潜心研究你的需求你的生活起居你的吃喝拉撒等。未来5-10年内即将发生。

上个月已经有机器人被认证为公民了。未来你可被替代性有多大呢?​​​​



未经允许不得转载:杨永博客 » 杜子建:未来商业预测,2018年的两个关键词,未雨绸缪和杞人忧天

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