5G网络什么时候能出

在广州举行的中国移动合作伙伴大会上,中国移动总裁李跃宣布,将于2017年开始5G大规模外场实验。尽管中国进入4G只有3年,三大运营商4G的全面高速发展只有2年,但5G的加速部署预期似乎已经形成。

“各方对5G标准的制定事实上是互相妥协的心态,再加上我们看到一些运营商着急部署5G,特别是美国的因素,我们看到5G发展的确比想象中的要快。”12月20日,爱立信中国CMO常刚在接受第一财经记者采访时表示。

5G网络什么时候能出

5G网络什么时候能出

中国移动明确5G部署目标
最早在MWC2015上,中国移动对中国规模部署5G预期的时间节点是2024年左右。“ITU(国际电信联盟)计划2016年到2020年完成技术方案的征集和标准制定,我们也希望在这个阶段实现标准化和测试,在2020年向ITU提交一个技术版本并获得通过,2020年底开始实施外场测试,在2024年步入商用。”彼时中国移动参展的专家曾向第一财经记者表示。

如果按照这个时间表部署4G,意味着中国移动可能拥有10年左右宝贵的4G发展时间,同时保持10年左右的优势。

ITU的时间表没有变化,2015年10月,ITU正式将5G技术命名为IMT-2020,并预计到2017年完成技术征集,在2020年完成标准制定。但部分国家计划对5G的部署却要早于这个计划。

作为全球拥有最多4G用户的电信运营商,中国移动的计划在5G全球发展路径更为明晰时也出现了一些微调。2016年2月,中国移动董事长尚冰在MWC2016的GTI(TD-LTE全球发展倡议)峰会上表示计划在2018年进行商用化产品的研发试验和试点,并“力争在2020年启动5G网络商用”。

不过在刚刚举行的2016中国移动合作伙伴大会上,5G的商用时间节点已经没有“力争”,而是更为明确的“2020年实现全国范围的5G商用”,同时,计划在2017年即开始大规模的5G外场实验,在2018年开始5G的试商用,相比2015年提出的目标大约提前了三四年。

美国、欧洲和日本加入竞赛
中国移动计划的调整并非没有缘由。中国在全球4G的竞争中展现优势,成为全球4G网络最发达、用户最多的国家。不过,部分电信业发达国家将关注重心集中到了5G,并期望更早部署5G。多个国家似乎正在开展一场5G的竞争。早在2014年,韩国即宣布将在2018年部署5G;日本运营商NTTDoCoMo也曾宣布,将在2017年在东京地区推出一个5G试验网络,2016年已启动大规模外场测试。

还有美国和欧洲,今年,美国最大的无线运营商Verizon宣布对5G技术开展了外场测试,欧洲运营商也蠢蠢欲动。

而据媒体报道,中国的5G推进主导机构——IMT-2020(5G)推进组在上个月也曾表示,我国将于2017年展开5G网络第二阶段测试,2018年进行大规模试验组网,并在此基础上于2019年启动5G网络建设,最快2020年正式商用5G网络。

我国IMT-2020(5G)推进组确定的时间节点,基本和其他国家的时间节点同步。

但也有专家提出质疑,“业界的共识是5G在2020年商用,对于这个时间表,我认为是比较激进的,最大的困难是缺乏核心技术储备。”值得一提的是,确实根据ITU提出的5G需求和技术目标,目前最先进的技术,也只是接近,特别是在时延方面,依旧难以达到ITU提出的1毫秒时延要求。

“5G要成熟,时间确实会很长。从北美部署的(测试)场景来看,我们可能一开始并不是在手机上部署5G。在多场景应用起步时,我们可能首先在某一些场景先达到成熟。

另外,根据一些芯片公司的研发时间节点,推出5G芯片的时间可能是在2018年,在2019年上半年,也可能会出现5G终端。”常刚对记者说。

根据爱立信的预计,到2022年,全球会有29亿联网终端,同时5.4亿来自5G终端。爱立信方面表示,这个数字是根据几个月前更多考虑北美率先部署5G情况下做出的预计,而如果现在预计包括中国在内东亚地区在5G部署上加速,实际的发展要超过上述速度。

未经允许不得转载:杨永博客 » 5G网络什么时候能出

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